In terms of the entry into force of the Decree of the President of Ukraine "On the Introduction of Martial Law in Ukraine", development of various delays in the delivery of goods is entirely possible. However, to date fluctuations of the foreign currency exchange rates may have even greater impact on the commodity traffic in Ukraine, rather than the martial law, informed owners of the large-scale logistics companies, included in the Ukrainian logistics Alliance, on November 29.
According to the co-founder of Delivery Group, Andrei Ivasiv, the trend of "fading" of the bulk sales of goods usually takes place in terms of aggressive exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, in terms of the stable exchange rates, the cargo traffic will also become stable, the expert stressed.
In turn, the co-founder of the logistical 3PL operator, ZAMMLER Group, Viktor Shevchenko reported that for 30 days of the martial law, the general trends of the freight transportation market will not change until December 22. But after the reporting date, the shipment volumes will decrease, due to beginning of the New Year holidays.
As for the maritime transportation, V.Shevchenko said that to date there are no significant reasons to reduce the main goods traffic in the ports of the Black Sea. In technological and technical terms, the market continued working in the same way as before. To date, the import/export cargo execution takes place under normal conditions. Some groups of goods undergo additional customs inspection, but it is not connected with the martial law, he stressed.
At the same time, the expert forecasted that in case of escalation of military operations and prolongation of the martial law period, Ukraine can expect for the uncontrolled increase of the exchange rates, inflation and possible supply problems.
To date, many companies are preparing new contracts with contractors for purchasing of raw materials in the new year. In case of the inflation spike, the prime cost of goods will increase, because in terms of the conversion of foreign currencies into hryvnia, the freight rates will also increase. As for Ukrainian producers, even the current tariffs are higher than the acceptable ones, and their increase will clearly affect the financial solvency of domestic importers/exporters. As a result, the selling volumes will reduce to the minimum level, V.Shevchenko added.